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Vol: 1. Now 45 Price Threepence Nov 3rd 1962
With so many contradictory features and tendencies in international affairs today it is impossible to make really precise predictions about the outcome of any particular situation. All the previously established rclationships have been modified om swept aside, for instance, it no longer possible for the Soviet bureaucracy to sell out a colonial struggle in exchange for concessions from imper= ialism as they did in the 30's and 40's. Today stalinism is no longer monolithic and if the Russian leadership attempt to do some deal with imperialism they will meot with immediate criticism from the Chinese leadership. This factor does not rule out deals but makes them much more unlikely and means that any sell out will be followed by a wholo series of crises within stalinism. We see this very clearly in the recent discussions over Cuba. The Chinese statement in which they say that Cuba's future cannot be bargained with was obviously directed at the Russians,
On the other hand, we are faced by a desperate and aggressive policy by th; most important imperialist power — the United States of America. This desp-— eration is brought on not only by the constantly changing relationship cof forces in favour of world revolution, but by growing fears of uconomic decline. Voices have been predictine a recession in America next year, this would coincide with an expected drastic slowing down of growth in the Common liarket, a world doflationary tondency and a severe decline in the cconomies of the so-called under-developed countries. Such a conjunction of factors, many of which would reciprocate upon each other, could very well lead to a situation. which would get out of hand, that is, unless counter measures are taken. The obvious solution that of increased military expenditure (seo elsewhere in this Bulletin) is not so easily used these days. Tho dollar,under pressure from the very unfavourable balance of payments pe sition of the United States, is no longer the king pin of the world cconomy. This in itself is a reflection of another changed factor -— the fact that the United States has no longer the undisputad dominance in the capitalist world that it had in the immediate post-war veriod. .iny vast increase in the military expenditure of tho United Statcs will upset its balance of paymonts position. This in tui. will load to a cutting down of non-military aid and pressure on the tallies' of the United States to take some of the burden off that country.
The last two points of the previous paraein turn will bring tonsions and conflicts in the existing pattern of war alliances. Increascd military expenditure by America's allies in a period of intensified struggle for export markets will in turn lead to political crises in these countries. On the one hand there will be wrangling over the way the burden is shared and inovitably attempts will be made ic_impose the burden on the backs of the workers, on the othcr tondencies will arise within the bourgeois itself of making some kind of drastic realignment in foreign policy. (Sithor of making some kind of approach to the Russians or of an aggressive indoymdent policy). In the undeveloped countrics the cutting down of American non military aid will undermine the position of many local regimes, which in turn will sharpen the international situation as anti-imporialist revolutionary struggles ensue. In desperation many may follow the Iranian example of becoming more Wcommnit ed , while others v.,ing for more aid may follow the Indian example of adopting a more aggressive policy to head off a potential revolutionary strug_le.
Thus the stage is set for a whole poriod of sharponsd conflict in protty woll every sector of the world front. In one thing we can agres with Adlai Stovenson, whon he says that tho cold war is an international civil war which affects evoryone. Ve must goar ourselves to quick and instant rcoaction as crises arise, we must conduct a bolder policy within the workers movement and we must theoretically sxplain the connection betwsen the attacks which are made upon the working class and intornational affairs. Thus we have the opportunity to link the mass anti-war movement as reproscnted by tho C.N.D., etc. with a strugsle for social change.