Yairs.
The rise in unemployment is gaining momentum. Between mid-October and mid~ November the™™?°" of registered unemployed in Britain rose by 43,073 to 544,451 - the highest November figure since 1940. The number of wholly unemployed (that is, excluding the school leavers and workers only temporarily stopped) increased between October 15 and November 12 at more than twice the normal seasonal ratos Ministry of Labour figures published November 22nde showed a rise of 41,775 tic 497,491 compared with the usual seasonal increase of 18,000.
This month's total of registered unemployed just caps the November, 195& figure of 536,000, which was a foretaste of the 620,000 reached in January, 1959. This was the post-war unemployment peak. While unemployment bounds up, the numbor of unfilled vacancies notified to labour exchanges continues to fall more rapidly than usual. Between mid-October and mid-November the number of jobs on offer was reduced by about 14,000 to 161,685 compared with a normal seasonal drop of 12,000. This means that there are about seven people out of work for every two jobs available, a disastrous relationship so far as unemployed workers are concerned but one which suits the employers. This compares with the position of two jobs being vacant for every unemployed worker which was the case before the Tories brought in their economic measures last yeare
This is little hope of immediate amelioration of the position, According to the Financial Times of 23rd. November, "Few in industry expect Iir. l'audling's recent measures-even short term ones—to have much effect on unemployment until January or February at the earliest. This view is shared, it is understood, by the Government. liinisters regard yesterday's figures as disturbing, and they expect the adverse trend to continue until February-with weather an important factor."
These figures for unemployment combined with the reported increase in industrial production reveal an intensified exploitation of labour. They show that more work is being done by less workers. The process is being achieved because, to quote the Guardian of 23/11/62, "..... output per man is not merely being raised through a large volume of operations and in addition, the growth of competition and pressure on margins has compelled many managements to get rid of personnel at all levels which was not essential. The hoarding of labour is being reduced or abandoned."
The figures also reveal that those areas which are already hard hit by a high er than average unemployment are, generally speaking, getting relatively worsee For instance unemployment in the Northern region has grown at three times the seasonal rate in the last three months. This region has has the highest percentage unemployed with the exception of Northern Ireland, having overtaken Scotland (5.5% male workers unemployed as against 4.9% in Scotland). The small measures announced by the Government for stimulating the economy, with the exception of the road—tmilding programme in the North jiast, will not help matters in these regions very much.
The political consequences of these figures can be far-reaching. Firstly, whilst the Government welcomes the ‘stimulus given to business efficiency! it : knows that there will be dire electoral and political consequences. It will therefore take some pallitave measures, but its ability to do this is very limited; as the Financial Times of 24/11/62 says discussing this very point, "The sixties are ging to be harder for business and labour than the fifties; in the last few years capacity has caught up with, and in some cases exceeded, demand in most of the industrial countries of the Vest. The larger margin of spare resources required to keep competitive in this situation has brought political discontent in places as far apart as Canada, ustralia and the U.K. Second, in the U.K.'s case, the margin of safety for further general expansion is not very large. The balance of payments is in equilibrium; the pace of income advance has been slowed}; and there is some unneeded slack in industrial plant. The Chancellor would therefore be justified if some furthsr stimulus was applied in noxt April's budget. But with world trade growing more slowly, expansion based on political expediency would be clearly be wrong."
Secondly, the position creates the basis for a roturn to traditional working class attitudes in large sections of the movement where they have been eroded by years of prosperity. More and more, the question of a socialist solution is posed and large sections of hitherto ‘apathetic! workers will turn to a political solution of their problems, This process will not, of course, be automatic the reverse could happen, this situation could lead to the demoralisation of big sections of the working class, What is needed is a political alternative within the limits set by the present consciousness of the working class, one which will be prepared to accept but which will take the movement to a high vr level, and will be a bridge to revolutionary consciousness. In other words a viable mass left wing within the Labour party.