Economic Correspondent. - 1523 te latest Bank of England Quarterly Palletin (March 1963) in discus ' sing Britain's economic position devotes considerable space to the question of exports. After examining prospects in particular markets it says : "For the immediate future it seems likely that world demand for manufactures will increase, ‘ if less quickly than of late. In these circumstances UK exports cannot be expect~ ed to grow more than modestly unless there is an improvement in the UK's share of = trade. Such an improvement might have been easier to achieve if the UK had joined the EEC, UK exporters would have gained access on #gvourable terms to a largo — and growing markots; entry would also have exposed British industry to greater com petition at home, and thereby made it easier to promote the continuing changes which are needed. Both these advantages are now denied, further change, has, therefore, become much more necessary and mich more difficult. ‘The immediate needs are restraints of costs, which requires in its turn an effective incomes policy, and agressive salosmanship,"
Moreover there is anothor dark cloud on the horizon — it appears lik ely that there will be a crisis in the medium and long-term credit system used by Britain (and other countries) to boost its exports (especially of heavy goods). © The UK has sought to ensure that its exporters, whether trading with less devel” oped countries or with other countries, are no less able to grant such credit than are their foreign competitors, Information is presented about the activities of 400 of the larger exporting firms, The exports concerned are mainly capital goods including all forms of machinery, railway and road vehicles, ships and aircraft; |. together these account for noarlly half of all UK exports outside the sterling area, , Over the last 10 years total exports to countries outside the sterling area havo | increased. ut the rate of growth of credit has been faster than the growth of exports, Figures show that a little over one third of total exports on credit during 1961 were to North America and Western Buropeg Latin America took ~ and other countries cutside the sterling arga, underdeveloped and otherwise, a little over one third also. The proportion of credit going to the lact groups has since increased at the expense of credit to Western Europe and North jAmerica, This is particularly important in the case of exported engineering goods, and is quite significant in the light of the racession in gngineering,
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Credit facility extensions however present their problems and the Bank has this to say : " This analysis has been concerned solely with the trends — of export credit granted to importers cutside the sterling area. Although compam able figures for the sterling area are not available, there is little doubt that the same trends apply. Within their limitations, the figures demonstrate the grow ing volume and lengthening terms of export credit granted by the UK, it is true in greater or less degrees of all industrialised countries, This has implications both for the developing and the capital exporting countriss. Some of the former havo already shown signs of building up a dangerously heavy burden of medium term dobi and there are fears that others may encounter similar difficulties. Lengthening credit terms result of course in increasing Calays in the recsipt of proceeds with consequent repercussions on the reserve position of the main exporting countries."
The National Economic Development Commission estimates that exports mst inerease iy 10 % if the economy is to sustain a growth of 4%, From what tho* Bank of England has to say on the export prospects for this country, this targot seems to be very remote. If National Productivity yeay is to yield the same results in the export field as it has in the field of employment, then Meddy is likely to prove of the same doubtful value as Nick,