As promised last week, we devote some remarks to the question of developments in the Western world which seem likely in 1963. It is, of course, not possible to do more than a "thumb nail" sxetch in this one article,
The relationehip of class forces is influenced, and, to an extent, determined by the general economic situation in the advanced capitalist countries far more than in any other field. Whilst not subscribing to the ‘imminent slump' theory, it is mecessary to take as a starting point the state of economic dissarray which is affecting, with few excep. tions, the Western countries. 1962 has seen in essence the end to such things as the "German miracle", and in nearly every capitalist country the problem of industry working below capacity is to the fore. The United States has again reached a plateau in production, all the Common Market countries (with the possible exception of Frange):-recognise that 1963 will see a mich decreased rate of economic growth, Britain's -~economic debilitation is more and more obvious, and even in Japan the problem of under-capacity working is growing. There is no automatic relationship between economie decline and a rise in militancy but a difficult economic situation leads the capitalist class to seek to solve their problems at the expense of the workers, gives them less room to manoeuvre, and leads to a orisis of policy within the capitalist class.
Sy and large the working classes of the Western worid are used to @ reasonable standard of living, full employment, and a "say", via ther organisations, in the way the affairs of the state are run. In the difficult economic situation which faces: the various eapitalist classes they are bound to try to make some encroachments on these positions, A typical example is that of the Tory "wages pause", the upshot of this was to bring into play the biggest strike movement in Britain sinee the 1926 general strike. Moreover the policy was a failure as is shown by the fact that wages increases won in 1962 were greater than in any previous year. This took place primarily becausc a section of the *~trade union bureaucracy, for s variety of reasons, decided to fight (even if in a dilatory fashion), Such a pattern seems Likely to be repeated in 1963 given that the workers' organisations are intact, the workers are conscious of their strength, and on the other hand the bourgeoisie is not desperate enough to foree a head on eollision. n On this basis 1963 would seem to herald a suec2ssion of indeternin~ ate attacks by the bourgeoisie on workers'conditions without decisive battles being fought out. In all countries this brings the possibility for Marxists to help to build within the traditional workers orgsnisations, left leaderships,which in itself would represent a first step in building revolutionary workers' partics. On the other hend, in the absence of such alternative leaderships, erosion of workers ' positions and organisations can take place, which means that future battles would be fought from a strategically weakened position. This in turn could mean that when the bourgeoisie attacks in a decisive anner, as it must eventually, big defeats could be inflicted upon the working class. In all events 1963 esn be decisive in this respect,
in a ——S