NTIL quite recently the Trade Unions in the Federal Republic, like
those elsewhere, were convinced that, whilst automation would of course threaten certain jobs, nevertheless because of the growing complexity of the machines new trades would emerge, and, in particular, that new chances of promotion for the workers would result. The facts are, unfortunately, presenting a quite different picture, as the Chairman of the Industrial Union of Metal Workers, Otto Brenner, pointed out at a Conference of the German Federation of Trade Unions in Frankfurt. In the West German metal industry alone the percentage of skilled workers fell between 1950 and 1963 from 50% to 41.6%. Brenner pointed out that, during the last two years, automated machine tools have been appearing which permit mere machine tending by trainees, even in the case of quite small quantities of products This development can easily lead to radical changes in just those branches which have so far been regarded as secure against automation: the manufacture of machine tools, repair workshops and the manufacture of machines. Practically everywhere it can clearly be observed that in the case of process workers trainees are ousting the skilled worker. Only a very small group of measurement and regulation mechanics and technicians are called upon to develop very much improved skills. But the proportion of such people amounts to only between 1% and 5% of the machine tenders and maintenance personnel. The increasing use of new materials is also having an adverse effect on employment. This is true in particular of plastics, which are increasingly displacing metal, wood and glass. As an example, our lecturer of today quoted a case in which the manufacture of 45 zinc bath tubs of 60 litres capacity formerly occupied 30 metal workers and 20 sheet metal machines for a full hour. Today one unskilled woman operating a plastics spraying machine can produce 60 ek tubs of the same capacity in an our. Similar developments are taking place in offices. It is true that modern techniques have led to an increase of salaried staffs, particularly in the case of technical personnel, since many operations affecting production have been transferred to the technical offices, especially programming. But many firms are already going over to having their programming done by electronic data processing. In other cases automated drawing machines
are rendering draftsmen and con-
structors redundant. Automation in
offices is displacing not only tradi-
tional routine tasks but also many
jobs occupied by very highly skilled
staffs. In some instances it is even
threatening the employment of many
intermediate and some senior man-
agerial staffs.
Brenner issued a warning against a
tendency to deceive ourselves about
the ultimate effects of automation,
merely because the present acute
shortage of labour concealed its in-
evitable results. The IFO Institute
estimates that the Federal Republic
would be able to continue to produce
the Social Product of the preceding
year whilst reducing its labour force
by 14 millions annually. In order to
find employment for these redundant
workers it would be necessary at one
and the same time considerably to
increase production whilst reducing
hours of work. The Trade Unions
may therefore justly claim that their
policy of negotiating higher wages
and at the same time shorter hours
have made an important contribution
to the present situation in Germany,
where despite rationalisation and
automation full employment still
obtains.
It is true that redundant technical
staffs do not always find jobs equiva-
lent to those they have lost. Reduced
earnings are often the consequence.
The Trade Unions therefore now find
themselves faced with the task,
through the medium of collective
agreements, of protecting the work-
ers against the negative effects of
automation.